The cutoff is live from Raider.IO. The shaded band is ours. We pulled week-by-week cutoffs from the last three seasons and the same shape repeats: the cutoff rockets early, flattens mid-season, then the title cutoff kicks back up in the final two weeks when the hardcore crowd sprints the finish. Seasons don't end at the same score, so we don't assume one. We fit that climb's shape onto this season's live number, and the band is the room for error around it.
The 1% mount is brand new this season, so there's no history for a 1% race. We model it on the title pushes, and we lean conservative with a wider band because it's never happened before.